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"2017-09-01 17:16:38"
What Everyone Gets Wrong About Global Warming
\\good morning John give me 4 minutes so that we can have a legit conversation about a warmer earth and what that means for actual whether the kind of conversation that we never get to have because it doesn't fit into a 15 second sound bite here's what we all need to get and I don't think it's anyone's fault for not getting that we talk about the effect that a warmer earth will have on the weather we're not talking about what's gonna happen we're talking about what's probably going to happen or more properly the probability of what will happen we are never gonna know how many big storms are gonna hit the U. S. in any given her cane sees what we can take a look at over the last 50 years and see how many major storms formed a per year and I'm doing that right now I'm putting a.for every year most of the years had 2 storms some of my advice not for it some beds 0 that year with 7 storms there that was 2005 the year that her can Katrina hit New Orleans sorry yeah I see what happened here there is a curve and this is a probability distribution and it is always how we should be thinking about how a changing climate is affecting weather today now this year not the dots the curve every year at the end of the hurricane season this probability curve collapses into just is no longer a set of things that could happen it becomes a very specific thing that did happen last year it collapsed in a 4 major storm of the year before that to the year before that to again in the before that 0 up so do we have a bit of a trend happening here no no no this is not a trend every year the curve runs itself again it might collapse down to 0 or it might collapse out to 7 but look at the dots obviously no one .on this curve is important and also the curve is saying that all this stuff happened everything that's in here is well inside of the realm of normal number of serious storm from year to year can jump dramatically well being the effect of the same probability curve warmer planet doesn't take you from this to this because global energy in the system isn't the only important variable it takes you from this to this something important is changing and that shifting the curve with that new curve collapses into reality.that might still be at 0 it's just less likely than it used to be and years like 2005 will still be rare they will just be less rare and if there are more strong storms there's a higher likelihood that they'll end up hitting in the worst place is possible as Harvey did as Katrina did homes that used to be considered safe might now find insurance because no one understands probability curves like that people who work in insurance companies is probability curves are what we use to determine whether a flood has like a one in 100 anger one in 50 chance it happening and as that changes those 0 year floods start to not be 0 year floods in the curve can shift before we're aware of it like with this we only get one new.a year which is why we create computer models so that we can run a hurricane season is over and over and over again with slightly changed variables to see what will happen and what we see with more energy in the global system is the curves shifting towards stronger wetter storms in more carbon we release in the atmosphere the more these curves shift and that is the future that we have to accept and the one that we have to prepare for and also the one that it's good to try and understand a little bit so thanks for taken 4 minutes to do that John I'll see you that took substantially less than 4 minutes I'm quite proud of myself so here we are together means can have some time I'm going to Australia see if economist earlier Australia people his shirt is the new draft love sure designed by Ming Doyle I like it a lot you can get a what else I talk about so that a backpack so this is mine you can't have these are my favorite fidget toys because they're quiet make no noise I can play with a mom and a phone call and it is not as noisy as this everybody hated me and now they don't anymore it has a you tube video I should make you go watch pressures film production I would look at Gladstone so good and the recent series and guns in America from health care triage really well done get by //

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